Perhaps the two most discussed topics every year when analyzing the NCAA Tournament bracket is the fact that a 12 seed usually beats a 5 seed and the fact that a 1 seed has never lost to a 16 seed. While both situations garner a lot of media attention, neither is really that unusual when you break it down and analyze the actual probabilities. The NCAA Tournament expanded to a field of 64 teams in 1985, so we have 22 years of tournaments with the current seeding format. In 20 of those 22 tournaments (91% of the time) a 12 seed has defeated a 5 seed in the first round.